Can Wigan Athletic do it again? A survival analysis | Los Three Amigos: A Wigan Athletic Site
Can Wigan Athletic do it again? A survival analysis
by Ned
A great analysis from a Wigan fans perspective, but do you think it's possible for Wigan to survive another season in the Premier League? Full analysis at the top, via the link.
Can Wigan Athletic do it again? A survival analysis
by Ned
As Latics supporters, we're used to being written off before a ball is kicked. Wigan will finally go down this year, we're told every year. Yet somehow this fantastic little club clings to its Premier League status again and again -- we've become survival specialists. It was no mean feat under Paul Jewell, an enthusiasm-fueled season like Norwich are enjoying at the moment. Or under Steve Bruce, when he totally revived a team of strugglers and misfits. But in the Martinez era, it has been achieved on half the budget, allowing the club to allocate funds toward youth development and long-term sustainability.
Indeed the worst case scenario, that of relegation, is a lot less worrying than it was three years ago. The squad is deep and young, with few big name players on heavy wage packets. Latics would probably lose three or four quality players -- Rodallega, Diame, Moses, and perhaps James McCarthy -- but would still have a very competent side capable of winning the Championship. As evidence, Callum McManaman, who can't buy playing time with the current squad, starred during his loan stint at Blackpool, who are 4th in said league. Nouha Dicko, yet to feature for the first team at Wigan, scored on his debut for the Seasiders several days ago. Jordi Gomez was far and away voted the best player in the Championship last time he played in it.
All this said, incredibly -- despite a cruel fixture list featuring the newly promoted teams in days 1, 2 and 3; a stretch of back-to-back games over Christmas against big four opposition; an 8-match losing steak; a (separate) 9-match winless streak -- we're not down yet.
In fact, we've hung in there just long enough that opportunity knocks, and real optimism is brewing. It's tighter this year than last, when more teams got sucked into the battle. But this year it will take less points. We are essentially in a five-team relegation mini-league at the bottom of the table, cut adrift from the other 15 not only by 7 points but a gulf in quality. Aston Villa will not get relegated despite Alex McLeish's best efforts, nor will Fulham, Stoke or West Brom. Three of them have too much quality, and the other has Roy Hodgson. The best bet for anyone else joining the party appeared to be a collapse in form from one of the newly promoted sides, but Swansea's strength at home should keep them safe, while Norwich are already only about two wins away from safety.
So we're looking at a mini-league between QPR, Blackburn, Wolves, Bolton and ourselves, with the top two surviving.
A great analysis from a Wigan fans perspective, but do you think it's possible for Wigan to survive another season in the Premier League? Full analysis at the top, via the link.
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